The average life expectancy in the United States in 1970 was 70.8 years, just over a one year increase from the average life expectancy in 1960 (1). It is against that backdrop that Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) was originally conceived and marketed in the 1970’s. At the time the product was developed, interest rates were high and assumptions regarding investment income were made based upon the thought that interest rates would remain at high levels. However, past performance is no guarantee of future results, and interest rates have been at historical lows since 2008. LTCI gained popularity in the late 1980’s and the early 1990’s, while at the same time the average life expectancy grew steadily and at rate that far outpaced the decade of the 1960’s. By 2013, the average life expectancy in the United States had ballooned to 78.8 years. Today, financial planners continue to suggest LTCI as an essential element of a retirement plan.

A closer look at LTCI beyond average life expectancy and interest rates reveals other stresses to the pricing of this product. The frequency and severity of LTCI claims is increasing; a 2014 study performed by AON indicated that frequency was increasing 3% annually and severity was increasing 2% annually (2). The lapse rate for these policies has also been lower than expected. The same AON study showed that the overall loss ratio was expected to grow 5% annually. This perfect storm has caused long-term care insurance to be a long term problem for insurers, regulators, and policyholders.